Ryan O’Hanlon is a writer and editor living in Los Angeles. He publishes a twice-a-week newsletter about soccer called <a href=" Grass in the Clouds.

FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

George H.W. Bush only lost his re-election bid in 1992 because a peculiar independent candidate from Texas, Ross Perot, drew more voters away from Bush than from Democratic candidate Bill Clinton.

Twelve years ago, just after the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Democratic candidate Howard Dean raised his voice, balled his fist and entered political history as a man whose immoderate speaking style cost him ...

Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Table only ...

Live election results and coverage of the race for Chicago mayor and Wisconsin Supreme Court. Earlier, we had the latest news and analysis on Donald Trump’s arraignment in New York, after a Manhattan ...

America’s cities are some of its most solidly Democratic areas — but that doesn’t mean they are solidly liberal. Over the past two years, the mayoral elections in our two biggest cities have boiled ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

In the first few years after former President Donald Trump assumed office, he essentially became a one-man litmus test for the Republican Party. Conservatives’ bona fides hinged less on their voting ...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, might not have any credibility as a pollster in FiveThirtyEight’s rating system, but he’s a pollster nonetheless.

I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions ...

Throughout the midterms, I think we saw issues that hadn’t been on many people’s radar matter when those rights looked to be under threat. The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade played a major role ...