We’ve seen in the past that NZ has very high estimated numbers of homeless people by international standards, and that this is at least in part because we have a very broad definition of “homeless”.

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

So far there have been 186 matches played, 143 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games ...

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team ...

So far there have been 127 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games ...

I do also want to emphasize that no-one expert thinks this is a proposal to stop collecting data for the government. Administrative data already marks when you are born or die, when you enter or leave ...

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team ...

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away ...